Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##    denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                   Savona         926  6.71        14.04       3.35
## 2       Reggio di Calabria         241  4.01         0.42       0.44
## 3                    Nuoro          74  2.35         5.71       0.35
## 4               Campobasso         211  2.14         4.46       0.95
## 5                   Biella         783  1.80         4.68       4.46
## 6                 Brindisi         485  1.64         5.90       1.23
## 7                Frosinone         521  1.58         3.17       1.07
## 8                La Spezia         767  1.38         3.51       3.49
## 9                  Cosenza         407  1.25         5.71       0.58
## 10                 Catania         783  1.17         3.30       0.71
## 11                L'Aquila         237  1.00         1.72       0.79
## 12           Vibo Valentia          71  0.95         1.43       0.44
## 13                Cagliari         217  0.94         2.36       0.50
## 14                   Lucca        1197  0.93         2.75       3.09
## 15                Piacenza        3369  0.91         2.12      11.73
## 16                 Gorizia         132  0.76         0.76       0.95
## 17         Bolzano / Bozen        2380  0.73         2.37       4.48
## 18                    Bari        1110  0.70         3.26       0.89
## 19                  Foggia         852  0.66         3.65       1.37
## 20                   Lecco        2072  0.65         2.07       6.14
## 21    Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         935  0.61         1.52       5.90
## 22                  Trento        3532  0.59         2.94       6.53
## 23                 Potenza         168  0.40         0.60       0.46
## 24                  Verona        3974  0.29         2.42       4.29
## 25                 Taranto         242  0.27         1.26       0.42
## 26      Reggio nell'Emilia        4318  0.26         2.40       8.12
## 27                   Fermo         384  0.26         0.79       2.21
## 28                   Parma        2813  0.22         1.63       6.23
## 29                  Modena        3390  0.21         1.50       4.81
## 30                  Matera         174  0.19         1.16       0.88
## 31                 Livorno         489  0.18         1.88       1.46
## 32           Massa-Carrara         933  0.16         1.63       4.79
## 33                  Arezzo         558  0.09         1.82       1.63
## 34                   Prato         466  0.04         1.97       1.81
## 35                 Bergamo       10689  0.03         0.56       9.59

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##           denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                         Crotone         117  0.00         0.00       0.67
## 2                         Isernia          50  0.00         0.00       0.59
## 3                    Sud Sardegna          86  0.00         0.00       0.25
## 4                       Agrigento         132  0.00         0.00       0.30
## 5                   Caltanissetta         138  0.00         0.00       0.53
## 6                          Ragusa          69  0.00         0.00       0.22
## 7                         Trapani         135  0.00         0.00       0.31
## 8           Monza e della Brianza        4098  0.00         1.39       4.69
## 9                          Genova        3706 -0.01         1.70       4.41
## 10                         Napoli        2159 -0.02         1.36       0.70
## 11                         Torino       10144 -0.02         3.61       4.49
## 12                          Lecce         451 -0.03         1.81       0.57
## 13                       Oristano          42 -0.06         2.44       0.27
## 14                Pesaro e Urbino        2312 -0.10         0.83       6.44
## 15                         Rimini        1818 -0.10         0.72       5.36
## 16                        Perugia         975 -0.11         0.31       1.49
## 17                        Brescia       11946 -0.11         1.60       9.44
## 18                          Udine         910 -0.11         0.44       1.72
## 19                          Terni         328 -0.11         0.92       1.45
## 20                         Milano       15825 -0.11         1.79       4.87
## 21                         Ancona        1718 -0.13         0.94       3.65
## 22                         Teramo         619 -0.17         0.32       2.01
## 23                         Latina         442 -0.26         1.38       0.77
## 24                        Ravenna         926 -0.26         0.54       2.38
## 25                        Palermo         417 -0.27         1.21       0.33
## 26                         Padova        3667 -0.27         0.94       3.91
## 27                          Siena         405 -0.29         1.50       1.52
## 28                        Salerno         607 -0.29         0.83       0.55
## 29                   Forlì-Cesena        1415 -0.29         1.36       3.59
## 30                        Caserta         397 -0.34         0.00       0.43
## 31                      Pordenone         591 -0.35         0.68       1.89
## 32                          Rieti         280 -0.36         0.00       1.80
## 33                          Cuneo        2053 -0.37         3.84       3.50
## 34                       Avellino         427 -0.40         0.47       1.02
## 35                        Firenze        2609 -0.42         1.79       2.58
## 36                        Venezia        2143 -0.45         1.28       2.51
## 37                        Sassari         796 -0.49         0.89       1.62
## 38          Barletta-Andria-Trani         335 -0.50         0.00       0.86
## 39                         Novara        1987 -0.51         2.37       5.38
## 40                      Catanzaro         197 -0.51         0.00       0.55
## 41                          Pavia        3582 -0.55         1.30       6.56
## 42                  Ascoli Piceno         271 -0.62         0.00       1.31
## 43                        Vicenza        2339 -0.66         1.87       2.71
## 44                        Imperia        1122 -0.67         1.63       5.25
## 45                        Bologna        3740 -0.67         1.66       3.69
## 46                        Messina         489 -0.69         1.66       0.78
## 47                           Pisa         778 -0.71         0.52       1.86
## 48                        Cremona        5417 -0.72         0.18      15.09
## 49                        Pescara        1094 -0.72         2.15       3.43
## 50                       Macerata         914 -0.74         0.88       2.91
## 51                        Pistoia         557 -0.75         0.54       1.90
## 52                       Grosseto         380 -0.81         0.26       1.71
## 53                           Lodi        2724 -0.86         0.37      11.83
## 54                      Benevento         170 -0.89         1.80       0.61
## 55                         Varese        2158 -0.91         2.47       2.42
## 56                         Rovigo         306 -1.00         0.00       1.30
## 57                           Enna         372 -1.03         1.92       2.26
## 58                        Viterbo         349 -1.07         0.00       1.10
## 59                       Vercelli         975 -1.11         1.14       5.70
## 60                        Mantova        2905 -1.12         1.47       7.05
## 61                           Roma        4082 -1.12         1.59       0.94
## 62                        Ferrara         771 -1.25         1.58       2.23
## 63                        Sondrio         956 -1.40         2.03       5.28
## 64                    Alessandria        2783 -1.43         1.13       6.61
## 65                       Siracusa         182 -1.51         0.00       0.46
## 66                           Como        2488 -1.66         2.01       4.15
## 67                        Belluno         856 -1.76         2.51       4.22
## 68                        Treviso        2315 -2.08         0.65       2.61
## 69                           Asti        1064 -2.27         2.50       4.96
## 70 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1088 -2.47         1.40       8.66
## 71                        Trieste        1108 -2.56         0.54       4.73
## 72                         Chieti         571 -3.71         0.88       1.48

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##         denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5417           15.09   1
##                            Lodi        2724           11.83   2
##                        Piacenza        3369           11.73   3
##                         Bergamo       10689            9.59   4
##                         Brescia       11946            9.44   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1088            8.66   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4318            8.12   7
##                         Mantova        2905            7.05   8
##                     Alessandria        2783            6.61   9
##                           Pavia        3582            6.56  10
##                          Trento        3532            6.53  11
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2312            6.44  12
##                           Parma        2813            6.23  13
##                           Lecco        2072            6.14  14
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         935            5.90  15
##                        Vercelli         975            5.70  16
##                          Novara        1987            5.38  17
##                          Rimini        1818            5.36  18
##                         Sondrio         956            5.28  19
##                         Imperia        1122            5.25  20
##                            Asti        1064            4.96  21
##                          Milano       15825            4.87  22
##                          Modena        3390            4.81  23
##                   Massa-Carrara         933            4.79  24
##                         Trieste        1108            4.73  25
##           Monza e della Brianza        4098            4.69  26
##                          Torino       10144            4.49  27
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2380            4.48  28
##                          Biella         783            4.46  29
##                          Genova        3706            4.41  30
##                          Verona        3974            4.29  31
##                         Belluno         856            4.22  32
##                            Como        2488            4.15  33
##                          Padova        3667            3.91  34
##                         Bologna        3740            3.69  35
##                          Ancona        1718            3.65  36
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1415            3.59  37
##                           Cuneo        2053            3.50  38
##                       La Spezia         767            3.49  39
##                         Pescara        1094            3.43  40
##                          Savona         926            3.35  41
##                           Lucca        1197            3.09  42
##                        Macerata         914            2.91  43
##                         Vicenza        2339            2.71  44
##                         Treviso        2315            2.61  45
##                         Firenze        2609            2.58  46
##                         Venezia        2143            2.51  47
##                          Varese        2158            2.42  48
##                         Ravenna         926            2.38  49
##                            Enna         372            2.26  50
##                         Ferrara         771            2.23  51
##                           Fermo         384            2.21  52
##                          Teramo         619            2.01  53
##                         Pistoia         557            1.90  54
##                       Pordenone         591            1.89  55
##                            Pisa         778            1.86  56
##                           Prato         466            1.81  57
##                           Rieti         280            1.80  58
##                           Udine         910            1.72  59
##                        Grosseto         380            1.71  60
##                          Arezzo         558            1.63  61
##                         Sassari         796            1.62  62
##                           Siena         405            1.52  63
##                         Perugia         975            1.49  64
##                          Chieti         571            1.48  65
##                         Livorno         489            1.46  66
##                           Terni         328            1.45  67
##                          Foggia         852            1.37  68
##                   Ascoli Piceno         271            1.31  69
##                          Rovigo         306            1.30  70
##                        Brindisi         485            1.23  71
##                         Viterbo         349            1.10  72
##                       Frosinone         521            1.07  73
##                        Avellino         427            1.02  74
##                      Campobasso         211            0.95  75
##                         Gorizia         132            0.95  76
##                            Roma        4082            0.94  77
##                            Bari        1110            0.89  78
##                          Matera         174            0.88  79
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         335            0.86  80
##                        L'Aquila         237            0.79  81
##                         Messina         489            0.78  82
##                          Latina         442            0.77  83
##                         Catania         783            0.71  84
##                          Napoli        2159            0.70  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         170            0.61  87
##                         Isernia          50            0.59  88
##                         Cosenza         407            0.58  89
##                           Lecce         451            0.57  90
##                         Salerno         607            0.55  91
##                       Catanzaro         197            0.55  92
##                   Caltanissetta         138            0.53  93
##                        Cagliari         217            0.50  94
##                         Potenza         168            0.46  95
##                        Siracusa         182            0.46  96
##                   Vibo Valentia          71            0.44  97
##              Reggio di Calabria         241            0.44  98
##                         Caserta         397            0.43  99
##                         Taranto         242            0.42 100
##                           Nuoro          74            0.35 101
##                         Palermo         417            0.33 102
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 103
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 104
##                        Oristano          42            0.27 105
##                    Sud Sardegna          86            0.25 106
##                          Ragusa          69            0.22 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2150  0.8258  1.9044  3.0049  4.4850 15.0910

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Chieti         571        1.480855         0.88           4.60
##  L'Aquila         237        0.792560         1.72           0.71
##   Pescara        1094        3.430446         2.15           2.87
##    Teramo         619        2.009401         0.32           0.49

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Matera         174       0.8791920         1.16           0.98
##   Potenza         168       0.4603244         0.60           0.20

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         197       0.5497940         0.00           0.51
##             Cosenza         407       0.5766890         5.71           4.47
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         241       0.4397738         0.42          -3.60
##       Vibo Valentia          71       0.4435476         1.43           0.47

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Avellino         427       1.0207838         0.47           0.87
##  Benevento         170       0.6136785         1.80           2.69
##    Caserta         397       0.4301355         0.00           0.34
##     Napoli        2159       0.6998629         1.36           1.38
##    Salerno         607       0.5525651         0.83           1.12

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        3740        3.686113         1.66           2.33
##             Ferrara         771        2.230316         1.58           2.83
##        Forlì-Cesena        1415        3.585664         1.36           1.66
##              Modena        3390        4.805832         1.50           1.29
##               Parma        2813        6.228536         1.63           1.40
##            Piacenza        3369       11.732462         2.12           1.22
##             Ravenna         926        2.377676         0.54           0.80
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4318        8.118205         2.40           2.13
##              Rimini        1818        5.362563         0.72           0.82

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Gorizia         132        0.946895         0.76           0.00
##  Pordenone         591        1.891000         0.68           1.04
##    Trieste        1108        4.725088         0.54           3.10
##      Udine         910        1.720907         0.44           0.56

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Frosinone         521       1.0652589         3.17           1.58
##     Latina         442       0.7683562         1.38           1.64
##      Rieti         280       1.8006083         0.00           0.36
##       Roma        4082       0.9400739         1.59           2.71
##    Viterbo         349       1.1008422         0.00           1.07

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Genova        3706        4.405716         1.70           1.71
##    Imperia        1122        5.246914         1.63           2.30
##  La Spezia         767        3.493414         3.51           2.13
##     Savona         926        3.354295        14.04           7.33

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       10689        9.590073         0.56           0.54
##                Brescia       11946        9.436362         1.60           1.71
##                   Como        2488        4.152175         2.01           3.67
##                Cremona        5417       15.091028         0.18           0.90
##                  Lecco        2072        6.141443         2.07           1.42
##                   Lodi        2724       11.833291         0.37           1.23
##                Mantova        2905        7.045977         1.47           2.58
##                 Milano       15825        4.868759         1.79           1.91
##  Monza e della Brianza        4098        4.689136         1.39           1.39
##                  Pavia        3582        6.561786         1.30           1.85
##                Sondrio         956        5.278997         2.03           3.43
##                 Varese        2158        2.422629         2.47           3.38

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1718        3.645794         0.94           1.07
##    Ascoli Piceno         271        1.308048         0.00           0.62
##            Fermo         384        2.209436         0.79           0.53
##         Macerata         914        2.909179         0.88           1.62
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2312        6.442157         0.83           0.93

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##    province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Campobasso         211       0.9537240         4.46           2.31
##     Isernia          50       0.5925645         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##              province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        2783        6.605995         1.13           2.56
##                  Asti        1064        4.957184         2.50           4.78
##                Biella         783        4.459379         4.68           2.88
##                 Cuneo        2053        3.496861         3.84           4.21
##                Novara        1987        5.384561         2.37           2.88
##                Torino       10144        4.489443         3.61           3.63
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         935        5.904679         1.52           0.91
##              Vercelli         975        5.704724         1.14           2.25

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1110       0.8865857         3.26           2.56
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         335       0.8589501         0.00           0.50
##               Brindisi         485       1.2341752         5.90           4.26
##                 Foggia         852       1.3693720         3.65           2.99
##                  Lecce         451       0.5672000         1.81           1.84
##                Taranto         242       0.4195882         1.26           0.98

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##      province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Cagliari         217       0.5034359         2.36           1.42
##         Nuoro          74       0.3548310         5.71           3.37
##      Oristano          42       0.2663167         2.44           2.50
##       Sassari         796       1.6192981         0.89           1.38
##  Sud Sardegna          86       0.2452064         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         138       0.5257984         0.00           0.00
##        Catania         783       0.7068688         3.30           2.13
##           Enna         372       2.2574459         1.92           2.94
##        Messina         489       0.7800586         1.66           2.36
##        Palermo         417       0.3329107         1.21           1.48
##         Ragusa          69       0.2150249         0.00           0.00
##       Siracusa         182       0.4558844         0.00           1.51
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         558        1.628465         1.82           1.73
##        Firenze        2609        2.579723         1.79           2.22
##       Grosseto         380        1.714577         0.26           1.08
##        Livorno         489        1.460434         1.88           1.69
##          Lucca        1197        3.086038         2.75           1.82
##  Massa-Carrara         933        4.787611         1.63           1.47
##           Pisa         778        1.856638         0.52           1.23
##        Pistoia         557        1.904449         0.54           1.29
##          Prato         466        1.808192         1.97           1.93
##          Siena         405        1.515736         1.50           1.79

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2380        4.480607         2.37           1.63
##           Trento        3532        6.527468         2.94           2.35

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Perugia         975        1.485416         0.31           0.41
##     Terni         328        1.453688         0.92           1.04

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##                        province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1088        8.657871          1.4
##  three_day_rate
##            3.87

## [1] "2020-04-19"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Belluno         856        4.217788         2.51           4.27
##    Padova        3667        3.909765         0.94           1.21
##    Rovigo         306        1.302477         0.00           1.00
##   Treviso        2315        2.607552         0.65           2.73
##   Venezia        2143        2.511314         1.28           1.72
##    Verona        3974        4.289275         2.42           2.13
##   Vicenza        2339        2.712142         1.87           2.53

This page last updated: 20/4/2020